IR Scholars

— by Mahammad Ahmadov —

This article briefly investigates the latest developments in Syria, which is perhaps the most pressing issue in the world. So who is the new leader of Syria; former terrorist or liberal revolutionary-history says what? What happened in such a short time that it had such a profound impact on the despotic Assad regime? Would this great collapse have happened anyway if Russia and Hezbollah had not stopped their military support for Assad?

For that chaotic country to unite under one flag is not a predictable action for all communities of the world. But more interesting is that the organization that carried out this great mission after the long civil war was recognized as a terrorist group by some major states. The leader of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had excellent connections with Al-Qaeda, and they founded the al-Nusra Front which also fought against the regime. But after 2017, Abu Mohamed al-Jolani organized a new group and lost touch with Al-Qaeda. Jolani always announced that they do not have any global pretension to the world and that they just want the fall of Asad and the founding of Syria again. He also changed his political image from military man to politician. Alongside their lucky military actions, they established hospitals, municipalities, and other government buildings in the territories under their control for not only civilians but also as a way to prove themselves to the international community. Therefore, we can say that the local people believe in them and that they have given enough references to the people for the future of Syria.

But can we say it is the only reason for their victory; that HTS is a well-organized and better-coordinated organization than the previous groups who tried to do it? I think it is one of the reasons, but the fact that Russia no longer supports the Assad regime in Syria due to its war or for other reasons, and that its political and military position in Lebanon is more important for another ally, Hezbollah, is one of the main reasons for this fall. Another interesting point is that this event happened shortly after the election of Trump as president, who promised to re-establish peace in the world if elected.

Consequently, if we connect all the points, we can say that the timing was excellent. Maybe that was the element that made the difference. Anyway, the happy moment here was the return of the Syrian people to their land after a long period of chaos. We hope to see this peaceful situation last for a long time and the same in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.