IR Scholars

— by Mahammad Ahmadov —

On December 25th, in the early hours of the day, an Embraer 190 aircraft belonging to the Azerbaijani airline AZAL crashed while landing at the Aktau airport in Kazakhstan on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. Still, its arrival point should be Grozny, Chechnya. Initial reports after the crash said the plane had hit a flock of birds and had chosen Aktau Airport as an alternative airfield. There were 16 Russian, 37 Azerbaijani, 6 Kazakh, and 3 Kyrgyz citizens on board the crashed plane. According to the information, 32 people have been identified as survivors. Some of them are in serious condition. After the incident, a commission was assembled in Azerbaijan and sent to Aktau.

So, after the incident, some interesting points started to be presented to the community. Firstly, photos and videos that emerged after the accident show clearly that it was not just an accident or the consequences of bad weather conditions because there are some holes and visible shrapnel marks bent inwards on the fuselage. Additionally, video footage taken before the crash by a passenger shows injured people inside the plane, which proves an external attack.

On 27th December, John Kirby, White House spokesperson, said the US had seen ‘’early indications’’ of Russia and expressed the professional assistance of the USA to Azerbaijani and Russian experts, who investigated the area. Survivors of the crash confirmed hearing loud bangs before the incident. Thus, the probability that planes were attacked rather than an accident became more accurate. We see a trajectory confirming this in the map images we follow on FlightRadar24. After the attack, the aircraft made several circles to land at Grozny airport, but they were not given permission to land by Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Russia to cease spreading false information about the incident. In the meantime, the Kremlin refrained from making a statement until Saturday, pending the investigation’s results. However, on December 27, everything shifted as President Putin apologized for the accident during a phone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. An interesting point is The Kremlin made no direct admission that the plane had been stock by Russian air defense systems. Grozny, Mozdok, and Vladikavkaz were attacked by Ukrainian drones, so they shot the plane by mistake.

As a result, some questions remain relevant. The accidental shooting down of the plane was an accident, and this can be somewhat understood. However, Russia, which did not open its airspace to the pilots after the accident despite their many attempts, most likely diverted the plane to Aktau, maximizing the possibility of an accident and choosing the option of covering up the incident. Because they knew that it was impossible for the plane in this condition to cross the Caspian Sea, the heroic pilots and crew professionally landed the plane on the shore with the least possible damage and saved the lives of 32 people despite their deaths. The crew did a masterful job getting that aircraft, with impaired hydraulics and other damage, back overland and in the vicinity of the airport.

In the aftermath of the accident, at least 5 airlines have suspended flights to areas in Russia, including Azerbaijan Airlines, Turkmenistan Airlines, El-AL, and FlyDubai. This incident also brought a chill to relations with Azerbaijan, the only Caucasian country with which Russia maintains normal relations.

Sources:

• https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgp3qx0q7wo
• https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/29/asia/azerbaijan-airlines-crash-russia-intl/index.html
• https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-airlines-flight-was-downed-by-russian-air-defence-system-four-sources-2024-12-26/
• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/26/why-did-an-azerbaijan-airline-plane-crash-in-kazakhstan-what-we-know
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/27/azerbaijan-airlines-plane-experienced-external-interference-before-crash