IR Scholars

— by Alperen Keskin —

“What is the future likely to bring?  A reasonable stance might be to try to look at the human species from the outside.  So imagine that you’re an extraterrestrial observer who is trying to figure out what’s happening here or, for that matter, imagine you’re a historian 100 years from now — assuming there are any historians 100 years from now, which is not obvious — and you’re looking back at what’s happening today.  You’d see something quite remarkable.”

– Noam Chomsky

Noam Chomsky, one of the most influential thinkers of our time, underlines the importance of investigating the past to understand today in one of his essays: “The Eve of Destruction.” 2024 ends with lots of news and curveballs, while 2025 comes with as many obscurities.

1. Re-election of Donald Trump: What is promised, what to expect?

For some scholars, one of the biggest curveballs of 2024 was the re-election of Trump, but it can be also underlined that Trump’s win stopped being a curveball in Pennsylvania on the 13^th of July, right after the failed assassination attempt. During his victory speech, he claimed that he would keep his promises: “govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept. We’re going to keep our promises”*.

The most important promise regarding Europe is to end the war in Ukraine. He criticized the Biden administration several times for giving tens of millions of dollars to Ukrainian defense. We all remember his speech in an interview that starts with “Putin is a smart guy”, in this speech he promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours when he will be in the office. He has never given any specific details about how he will end the war; however, a significant number of scholars believe that he will mediate the war by convincing Zelensky to give up the occupied territories and giving & promising something in exchange. As an option, Trump may let Ukraine join NATO in exchange for giving up the occupied territories. However, this will affect far differently than ending the war in Ukraine, basically postponing a greater danger in Eastern Europe.

Additionally, Trump subtly promised to end the war in Palestine and Lebanon. With the fact that Trump is a strong supporter of Israel, he positioned himself as pro-peace in the territory by defending Israel’s right to defend itself as the American ally. Consequently, Trump’s attitude about the end of the conflict in the Middle East and maintaining peace in the region remains a mystery.

2. Fall of Assad

The latest surprise that 2024 gave us was the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. It is hard to understand the power dynamics in Syria, but it is obvious that there are lots of surprises waiting for us regarding Syria. The main powers in Syria, namely, Turkey, HTS, and Kurdish Forces (YPG), remain as unpredictable as possible. The connections between HTS and el-Kaide & ISIS remain uncertain, but HTS leader Colani claims that they will provide all necessary steps for democracy in Syria within 3-4 years.

On the other hand, Turkey plays a key role in Syria. Even though Turkey recognizes HTS as a terrorist organization as well as most of its Western allies such as the USA, Turkey-supported forces in Syria are in close contact and collaboration with HTS, especially against YPG. Additionally, some recently released videos of HTS soldiers in Damascus show that HTS soldiers are using the Turkish Lira (the official currency of Turkey) in a local shop.

A fresh update about Turkish involvement in Syria has the potential to re-read the situation in the region. Abdullah Ocalan, who is the founder of PKK (an umbrella terrorist organization in South-Eastern Turkey, Northern Syria, and Northern Iraq) and a prisoner in Turkey has been invited to negotiations by Erdogan to banish PKK in Turkey in exchange for his partial freedom. As an answer, Ocalan sent his message to Erdogan. In the message, Ocalan presents his warm gratitude to Erdogan, and he shows his willingness to cooperate. If this cooperation can born, we can expect a rapidly decreasing Turkish presence in Syria.*

3. North Korean Involvement in Ukraine*

For the first time during the post-Cold War era, the world witnessed an active collaboration between Russia and North Korea when North Korea sent thousands of troops to the Kursk region. The Western World, mainly the USA, was alerted to this alliance; however, we did not see any retaliation by pro-Ukrainian powers.

What did Putin offer in exchange for military help from North Korea, this question remains unanswered. We are likely to see the consequences of North Korean involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2025. However, one thing is easy to foresee: Kim Jong Un made war in Ukraine more complicated for any possible peace attempts coming from Trump.